{"data":{"verdict":{"action":"NO_EDGE","reason_code":"NO_POSITIVE_SPREAD","confidence":0.22,"confidence_label":"low","edge_bps":246,"edge_usd":0,"size_usd":null,"headline":"No positive spread after fees at the quoted asks.","drivers":["BUY YES on A + BUY NO on B: cost 1.111613 per $1 pair, gross spread -1004 bps, risk-adjusted 246 bps","P(both legs lose) 0.1%, P(shortfall below $1) 0.1%","13%: A=YES, B=NO: BTC trades at or above $150,000 on Binance at some point in 2027 (a touch), but the BRTI 60-second average at 5:00 PM EST on Dec 31, 2027 is at or below $150,00","1%: A=YES, B=NO: A Binance-only wick or venue/USDT-basis dislocation prints a 1m High of $150,000 or more, while the multi-exchange BRTI never reaches that level, so BRTI is not","420.5 days to resolution, 2.14% annualized"],"next_step":"Wait for a wider spread or lower fees; re-run with fresh asks.","partial":false,"missing":[]},"disclaimer":"Informational analysis only; not financial, investment, legal or tax advice. Model estimates can be wrong. Verify resolution rules and live prices before committing capital.","recommendation":"NO_EDGE","same_underlying_event":false,"equivalence_score":22,"resolution_source_a":"Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle (final High) per Polymarket rules","resolution_source_b":"CF Benchmarks BRTI, average over the 60 seconds before expiration (Kalshi)","deadline_a":"Dec 31, 2027 23:59 ET (window opens Jan 1, 2027 00:00 ET)","deadline_b":"5:00 PM EST on December 31, 2027","divergences":[{"scenario":"BTC trades at or above $150,000 on Binance at some point in 2027 (a touch), but the BRTI 60-second average at 5:00 PM EST on Dec 31, 2027 is at or below $150,000. This is a path-dependent touch bet against a single-timestamp terminal bet.","market_a_resolves":"YES","market_b_resolves":"NO","probability_pct":13,"clause_a":"This market will resolve to Yes if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between Jan 1, 2027 00:00 and Dec 31, 2027 23:59 ET has a final High price of $150,000 or higher.","clause_b":"If the CF Benchmarks BRTI price at 5:00 PM EST on December 31, 2027 is above $150,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise it resolves to No.","clauses_verified":true},{"scenario":"A Binance-only wick or venue/USDT-basis dislocation prints a 1m High of $150,000 or more, while the multi-exchange BRTI never reaches that level, so BRTI is not above $150k at expiry.","market_a_resolves":"YES","market_b_resolves":"NO","probability_pct":1,"clause_a":"has a final High price of $150,000 or higher","clause_b":"the value is the average BRTI over the 60 seconds before the expiration time","clauses_verified":true},{"scenario":"The BRTI average at 5 PM EST is above $150k, but no Binance BTC/USDT 1m High reaches $150k in 2027. This would need a USDT depeg or a large Binance discount to the BRTI constituents. It is very unlikely.","market_a_resolves":"NO","market_b_resolves":"YES","probability_pct":0.1,"clause_a":"Otherwise it resolves to No. The resolution source is Binance BTC/USDT with the 1m candle selected.","clause_b":"If the CF Benchmarks BRTI price at 5:00 PM EST on December 31, 2027 is above $150,000, then the market resolves to Yes.","clauses_verified":true}],"loophole_clauses":[{"market":"A","clause":"any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between Jan 1, 2027 00:00 and Dec 31, 2027 23:59 ET","risk":"This is a touch condition. A single wick on one exchange pays YES even if the price crashes right after. It is priced in USDT, not USD, so it is exposed to a Tether depeg. Candles from before Jan 1, 2027 do not count."},{"market":"A","clause":"has a final High price of $150,000 or higher","risk":"Inclusive threshold. 'Final' is not defined for a candle still forming. Binance data revisions, outages or pair delisting are not addressed, and the UMA proposer/dispute process could produce a delayed or contested settlement."},{"market":"A","clause":"The resolution source is Binance BTC/USDT with the 1m candle selected.","risk":"This relies on the Binance chart UI being accessible and unchanged. There is no fallback source if Binance is unavailable."},{"market":"B","clause":"If the CF Benchmarks BRTI price at 5:00 PM EST on December 31, 2027 is above $150,000, then the market resolves to Yes.","risk":"This is a single-moment terminal test with a strict 'above' threshold. A price of exactly $150,000.00 gives NO. A late-day dip below $150k wipes out any earlier highs."},{"market":"B","clause":"the value is the average BRTI over the 60 seconds before the expiration time","risk":"Smoothing over 60 seconds differs from a spot print. The rules give no fallback if BRTI is unavailable or CF Benchmarks changes its methodology or constituent exchanges. 'EST' is fixed UTC-5, which coincides with ET in December."}],"summary":"These are not the same bet. Market A is a touch option: any Binance BTC/USDT 1m High of $150k or more during 2027 pays YES. Market B is a terminal digital: the BRTI 60-second average at 5 PM EST on Dec 31, 2027 must be strictly above $150k. A YES / B NO is the main divergence (roughly 13%), whenever BTC touches $150k during 2027 but ends the year at or below it. Binance-only wicks add about 1% more. The reverse (A NO / B YES) is almost impossible, since a BRTI above $150k at year-end implies a Binance high at or above $150k unless there is a USDT/venue anomaly. Market A is therefore weakly dominant over B, and the two cannot be treated as hedges for each other. Dispute, outage and source-unavailability risks add small tail divergence.","analysis_mode":"model","unverified_divergences":0,"best_direction":{"legs":"BUY YES on A + BUY NO on B","cost_per_pair":1.111613,"fees_per_pair":0.011613,"gross_spread_bps":-1004,"p_double_win":0.14,"p_double_loss":0.001,"p_shortfall":0.001,"expected_payout":1.139,"risk_adjusted_spread_bps":246,"worst_case_loss_per_pair":1.111613,"kelly_fraction":0.2984},"directions":[{"legs":"BUY YES on A + BUY NO on B","cost_per_pair":1.111613,"fees_per_pair":0.011613,"gross_spread_bps":-1004,"p_double_win":0.14,"p_double_loss":0.001,"p_shortfall":0.001,"expected_payout":1.139,"risk_adjusted_spread_bps":246,"worst_case_loss_per_pair":1.111613,"kelly_fraction":0.2984},{"legs":"BUY YES on B + BUY NO on A","cost_per_pair":0.932012,"fees_per_pair":0.012012,"gross_spread_bps":729,"p_double_win":0.001,"p_double_loss":0.14,"p_shortfall":0.14,"expected_payout":0.861,"risk_adjusted_spread_bps":-762,"worst_case_loss_per_pair":0.932012,"kelly_fraction":0}],"unavailable_directions":[],"timing":{"days_to_resolution":420.5,"annualized_return_pct":2.14,"basis":"simple annualization of risk_adjusted_spread_bps over the later end date"},"hedge_sizing":{"method":"quarter-Kelly on the pair payoff; equal share counts on both legs","bankroll_fraction":0,"capital_usd":0,"pairs":0,"top_of_book_pairs":null,"capped_by":"kelly"},"partial":false,"missing":[],"warnings":[],"resolved_markets":null},"_provenance":{"version":"writerslogic-provenance/1","issuer":"did:web:agents.writerslogic.com","verify":{"endpoint":"POST /api/v1/verify-provenance","did":"did:web:agents.writerslogic.com"},"manifest":{"format":"application/json","instance_id":"xmp:iid:e6b1dd37-83e2-4580-984d-97cab4fc1f7b","claim_generator_info":[{"name":"WritersLogic x402 Agent Hub","version":"2.0.0"}],"title":"Cross-Platform Arbitrage & Resolution Rules Lawyer","assertions":[{"label":"c2pa.actions.v2","data":{"actions":[{"action":"c2pa.created","when":"2026-11-06T17:56:02.778Z","softwareAgent":{"name":"writerslogic-agent-hub/arbitrage-lawyer","version":"2.0.0"},"digitalSourceType":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","parameters":{"endpoint":"POST /api/v1/arbitrage-lawyer","inputDigest":{"alg":"sha256","hash":"4ff760c933893d3350e86c4bc6a043bc43c9477058f0dc2c2d2cda3fb7dd5257","canonicalization":"JCS"}}}]}},{"label":"c2pa.hash.data","data":{"alg":"sha256","hash":"6ab2b4126deb492939d9b04d21500ad9414adaaacc23230bf5bceaba6f9a686a","name":"jcs-canonical-json(data)"}}]},"credential":{"@context":["https://www.w3.org/ns/credentials/v2"],"id":"urn:uuid:6ba949f1-9ce9-45dc-a792-95b90586fa72","type":["VerifiableCredential","AgentOutputCredential"],"issuer":"did:web:agents.writerslogic.com","validFrom":"2026-11-06T17:56:02.778Z","credentialSubject":{"id":"urn:sha256:6ab2b4126deb492939d9b04d21500ad9414adaaacc23230bf5bceaba6f9a686a","agent":"arbitrage-lawyer","endpoint":"POST /api/v1/arbitrage-lawyer","outputDigest":{"alg":"sha256","value":"6ab2b4126deb492939d9b04d21500ad9414adaaacc23230bf5bceaba6f9a686a","canonicalization":"JCS"},"inputDigest":{"alg":"sha256","value":"4ff760c933893d3350e86c4bc6a043bc43c9477058f0dc2c2d2cda3fb7dd5257","canonicalization":"JCS"},"manifestDigest":{"alg":"sha256","value":"2d5c1e822ff1eacc63b459ad915aa50499f28366beff2e92c367186c48732aec","canonicalization":"JCS"},"ingredients":[],"payment":{"scheme":"api-key","network":"eip155:8453","payer":"sample"}},"proof":{"type":"DataIntegrityProof","cryptosuite":"eddsa-jcs-2022","created":"2026-11-06T17:56:02.778Z","verificationMethod":"did:web:agents.writerslogic.com#key-1","proofPurpose":"assertionMethod","proofValue":"z33E235hMEicVVSNSVgZoiFRgQWHqk12cZgqwv4hC4PKere2ntCD5Z88orLE8qMZJw1U3mvX4tQUV1sg2pEcLtbo8"}},"ethSignature":{"type":"EIP-191","signer":"did:pkh:eip155:8453:0x3DBd42560cA7a7E448A2c7DfC9E785526189411f","address":"0x3DBd42560cA7a7E448A2c7DfC9E785526189411f","message":"writerslogic-provenance:bcbba8fa899d1e7c964a57f796d77e3827da3bc8cb2ca28c1e804efbbbb8f8a6","signature":"0x62098b95d202b9c526466ab1eeb3829bcd9e6da790e05e2a534b0df52bd850b737893e3d1b6e1c638de5614b8440040165ce403dba2f58eaceeb50b37ae9d8b21c"}}}