Causal Claim Referee

$1.50 USDC per call · Research integrity · POST /api/v1/prove-causality · Id causalReferee

Referees a causal claim against an observational table (JSON rows, CSV text, or a published contingency table with counts) and leads with a verdict, confidence, whether the claim holds, the crude and adjusted effects with bootstrap intervals, and a concrete next step. Underneath: crude and stratified effects, Mantel-Haenszel pooling, Simpson's-paradox detection, d-separation and backdoor/front-door checks with minimal adjustment sets, g-formula standardization with positivity checks, exact or seeded Monte Carlo permutation tests, and a PC-algorithm check of the DAG against the data. Verdict by code rules; with a caller-supplied DAG no model is called and the result is reproducible. Conclusions hold only under the DAG and no-unmeasured-confounding assumptions, which are listed in the output; this is statistical analysis, not a substitute for a randomized trial.

What you get

Tells a buyer whether a claimed cause-and-effect survives confounding, Simpson's reversals and unidentifiability, with reproducible numbers and a stated next step instead of an LLM opinion.

Call it

Send the JSON body below to https://agents.writerslogic.com/api/v1/prove-causality. An unpaid request answers 402 with the price and how to pay; a request that fails with a 5xx status is not charged.

curl -i -X POST https://agents.writerslogic.com/api/v1/prove-causality \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"data":[{"treatment":"A","stone_size":"small","success":1,"n":81},{"treatment":"A","stone_size":"small","success":0,"n":6},{"treatment":"A","stone_size":"large","success":1,"n":192},{"treatment":"A","stone_size":"large","success":0,"n":71},{"treatment":"B","stone_size":"small","success":1,"n":234},{"treatment":"B","stone_size":"small","success":0,"n":36},{"treatment":"B","stone_size":"large","success":1,"n":55},{"treatment":"B","stone_size":"large","success":0,"n":25}],"countColumn":"n","treatment":"treatment","outcome":"success","covariates":["stone_size"],"treatedValue":"B","claim":"Treatment B causes a higher recovery rate than treatment A.","claimDirection":"positive","dag":{"edges":[{"from":"stone_size","to":"treatment"},{"from":"stone_size","to":"success"},{"from":"treatment","to":"success"}]}}'

Input

Example request body

{
  "data": [
    {
      "treatment": "A",
      "stone_size": "small",
      "success": 1,
      "n": 81
    },
    {
      "treatment": "A",
      "stone_size": "small",
      "success": 0,
      "n": 6
    },
    {
      "treatment": "A",
      "stone_size": "large",
      "success": 1,
      "n": 192
    },
    {
      "treatment": "A",
      "stone_size": "large",
      "success": 0,
      "n": 71
    },
    {
      "treatment": "B",
      "stone_size": "small",
      "success": 1,
      "n": 234
    },
    {
      "treatment": "B",
      "stone_size": "small",
      "success": 0,
      "n": 36
    },
    {
      "treatment": "B",
      "stone_size": "large",
      "success": 1,
      "n": 55
    },
    {
      "treatment": "B",
      "stone_size": "large",
      "success": 0,
      "n": 25
    }
  ],
  "countColumn": "n",
  "treatment": "treatment",
  "outcome": "success",
  "covariates": [
    "stone_size"
  ],
  "treatedValue": "B",
  "claim": "Treatment B causes a higher recovery rate than treatment A.",
  "claimDirection": "positive",
  "dag": {
    "edges": [
      {
        "from": "stone_size",
        "to": "treatment"
      },
      {
        "from": "stone_size",
        "to": "success"
      },
      {
        "from": "treatment",
        "to": "success"
      }
    ]
  }
}

Result

The response is { "data": ..., "_provenance": ... }. data carries these fields; _provenance is a signed W3C Verifiable Credential with a C2PA-style manifest, checked free at POST /api/v1/verify-provenance.

Pay and connect

Available through: x402 (USDC on Base), MCP, RapidAPI, Apify.

Machine-readable

• This agent as JSON (schemas, example, OpenAPI operation)
• Free signed sample response
• OpenAPI 3.1 · Catalog · Index of every agent